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Here's What's Happening In The Market, Here’s What This Means For You

Stagflation Is a Real Possibility to These Analysts
A new poll of economists think the Fed won’t be able to lower rates as fast as it wants.

Mortgage Debt Inched Up at the End of Last Year
That includes both commercial and multifamily according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

More Construction Projects Are Being Delayed Or Abandoned Entirely
Perhaps most alarmingly, the number of abandoned public projects jumped 70% compared to the same week in 2023.

LA Leads The World In Commercial Property Deals
Global investors sank more than $96B in SoCal market over three years, per JLL

Brace Yourself for Disappointing News From the Fed
The much-anticipated June rate cut is in question in some quarters.

Trepp: More Properties Selling at a Loss
Commercial property prices declined last year by 5.3%, according to the Trepp Property Price Index.

Fed Seen Likely to Hold Off on Rate Cut Following Feb. Inflation Report
With increases in energy and housing costs comprising more than 60% of the total gain, inflation came in slightly hotter than expected for February.

Multifamily Logs Biggest Jump In Distress In 18 Months
The sector’s 80 bps increase was higher than any other commercial real estate segment.

Deluge of Factors Leading to Layoffs in Most Sectors as Recession Fears Loom
'Layoffs are also driven by broader economic trends... though in most cases, companies point to cost-cutting as the main driver for layoffs...'

Why Hasn't the Distress Been Worse?
It may be that things will be good for a time, but possibly not for that long.

The CRE CLO Problem Is More Grim Than It Seemed
While not the most common form of CRE financing, this backing of riskier projects could be the start of a default wave.

Stagflation Is a Real Possibility to These Analysts
A new poll of economists think the Fed won’t be able to lower rates as fast as it wants.

CNBC Survey Lowers Risk of Recession but Sees Fewer Rate Cuts
There’s a mix of upside and downside in the latest CNBC Fed Survey.

Presidential Election Or Not, The Fed Will Cut Interest Rates In The Fall If It Must, Economists Say
For now, traders are betting that the first rate cut will likely come in June.

Renting Will Be Cheaper Than Buying For a Long Time
Lack of inventory, record prices, falling pressure on rent growth makes owning more expensive.

Apartment Rents are Rebounding in Los Angeles
After declining for the last four months of 2023, rent growth has a pulse.

This Exec Thinks It’s a Long Way to Bottom
As investment experts say, timing markets is tricky and can be surprising.

Risky Commercial Real Estate Investments Are Getting Squeezed As The Market Collapses
Delinquent assets are taking over investment products that bundle risky commercial real estate debt.

The Federal Reserve Didn’t Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say
People would probably be wise to remember that saying isn’t doing.

Multifamily, Office Cap Rates Have More Room to Expand
The idea of distress and market weakness could be strongly connected to general cap rates.

Orange County

4
Closed Sales Last Week
33
Closed Sales - Average Days on Market
$2,986,025
Closed Sales - Average Sales Price
2
Transactions Sold At or Above Asking Price
3
Financed Transactions Last Week
1
All Cash Transactions Last Week
3
2-4 Unit Transactions Last Week
1
5+ Unit Transactions Last Week
11
New Listings Last Week
6
Months of Inventory
214
Total Number of Active Listings
$661,507,185
Active Listings, Dollar Volume
6
Active Under Contract Last Week
4
Pending Listings Last Week
2
Expired Listings Last Week

Orange County Closed Sales - MikeLembeck.com


Avg. Cap Rate: 4.44%
Avg. Gross Rent Multiplier: 14.74

Live MLS Link PDF Link


Southern California

10
Closed Sales Last Week
36
Closed Sales - Average Days on Market
$1,453,000
Closed Sales - Average Sales Price
4
Transactions Sold At or Above Asking Price
7
Financed Transactions Last Week
3
All Cash Transactions Last Week
6
2-4 Unit Transactions Last Week
4
5+ Unit Transactions Last Week
12
New Listings Last Week
10
Months of Inventory
135
Total Number of Active Listings
$418,895,732
Active Listings, Dollar Volume
3
Active Under Contract Last Week
2
Pending Listings Last Week
1
Expired Listings Last Week

Orange County Closed Sales - MikeLembeck.com


Avg. Cap Rate: 4.63%
Avg. Gross Rent Multiplier: 14.13

Live MLS Link PDF Link