Dark Days Are Coming For US Commercial Real Estate And The Banks Holding The Loans
Goldman Sachs estimates $1.2 trillion in mortgages is due this year end next, others say even more. Much of it underwater.

More Distress Looms in Multifamily Finance. Here’s Why.
The debt category that’s especially at risk, and potential strategies for borrowers.

Housing Inventory Up For Third Straight Month
The number of homes actively for sale during January increased by 7.9% from one year earlier, according to data from Realtor.com.

Single-Family Rental Outlook Remains Positive Despite 2023 Headwinds
Although landlord pricing power should hold up, expense growth will remain a challenge.

The Dry Powder Can't Get Here Soon Enough
Money wants to move but banks have the jitters. The pressure’s going to break somewhere. Here are some examples.

Will Commercial Real Estate Owners Loosen Up This Year And Sell?
What’s selling motivation, you may be wondering. We’ve not experienced much since the middle of 2022 when the Federal Reserve mounted its stair climber and hiked interest rates several times over the next 18 months.

Multifamily Sales Slow So Far This Year But Experts Think That Will Change
The bar is very low as 2023's total was down by 60%.

Worst Year on Record for CMBS Office Maturities 
In the last month of 2023, the overall CMBS office loan payoff rate was 40%, with small loans (<$10mm) at an 88% rate and large loans (>$100mm) at 29%, according to Moody’s report. 

MSCI: Apartment Sales Drop 61%
Pricing fell 8.4% in 2023, and cap rates rose for garden and mid- and high-rise properties.

Cracks in the Commercial Property Market Are Widening to Apartments
Apartment building financers were caught out by the sharp tightening in monetary policy because they often extend so-called bridge loans, which have floating interest rates.

Powell Insists The Fed Will Move Carefully On Rate Cuts, With Probably Fewer Than The Market Expects
“We just want some more confidence before we take that very important step of beginning to cut interest rates,” he said.

Commercial Real Estate A 'Manageable' Problem But Some Banks Will Close: Powell
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is predicting that more small banks will likely close or merge due to commercial real estate weaknesses, but that the problem is ultimately "manageable."

Survey Finds Rampant Fraud In Rental Housing Applications
A new survey of rental housing providers conducted by the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) found that nearly all respondents (93.3%) have been on the receiving end of fraudulent applications over the last 12 months.

Four More Years Of Jerome Powell?
 If Donald Trump resumes the presidency in 2025, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be out of a job come 2026. 

LA Multifamily Landlords Fighting $3B In Potential Distress As Renter Protections End
As pandemic-era renter protections in Los Angeles come to an end, owners of the city's distressed multifamily properties are counting down the days until a combination of rent increases and lower interest rates can help them find more solid financial footing.

Fed Chair Powell Channels Ben Bernanke, Assures Us Everything Is Fine!
The commercial real estate market could be the next thing to pop in this bubble economy and that could lead to the next major financial crisis. But you don’t need to worry. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell assured us that everything is fine.

The Fed Says Its Record Losses Don’t Matter
The Federal Reserve recently disclosed its preliminary income and expenses for 2023, revealing an unprecedented $114.3 billion in operational losses. Somewhat surprisingly, Fed officials seem unconcerned about this financial performance. 

Wall Street Worries About Another Regional Banking Crisis
It’s been nearly a year since the collapse of three US regional lenders left financial institutions and regulators scrambling to prevent the spread of a banking crisis. Today, investors are worried they’re back on familiar territory.

Are Apartments The Next Mess For Commercial Real Estate?
The cracks in the commercial real estate market are widening from offices to apartment complexes, with more than $67 billion of the housing potentially distressed as borrowers struggle to repay loans extended during the height of the pandemic.

Regional Banks Still Have the CRE Blues
Regional and smaller banks have the most CRE loans on their balance sheets.

Banks Expecting More Tightening on CRE Underwriting Standards
Lenders also expect demand for CRE loans to increase along with all other types.

Investors Worried More About Election Day than Rates, Recession 
Nearly 70% of investors see the market as “increasingly challenging,” with the 2024 U.S. presidential election being the top concern.

New Apartment Deliveries Reach Record High
That led to a slight increase in apartment vacancies and a slowdown in year-over-year net effective rent growth, although net absorption was four times the pre-pandemic average for Q4.

86% Of Metro Areas Posted Home Price Gains In Q4 2023
 According to new data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which noted that 15% of the 221 tracked metro areas experienced double-digit price gains.

Household Debt Reached $17.5 Trillion In Q4 2023
The new data report also found aggregate delinquency rates increased in the fourth quarter, with 3.1% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency at the end of December. 

Losses on CMBS Loans Increase in January
January saw $834.0 million in CMBS loans resolved at a loss, with $382.3 million in losses total, carrying an average loss severity of 45.84% for the month, reported Trepp. This was an increase in loan loss volume from December 2023, where losses totaled $132.9 million, although December’s loss severity was greater.

A Commercial Real Estate Crash Is Unfolding, And Regional Banks Are Feeling The Pain
Regional bank stocks are feeling the bite of the unfurling commercial property crisis in a rout that's giving SVB-collapse flashbacks. Commercial real estate loans are going sour with huge defaults on the horizon, pummeling banks from New York to Tokyo.