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Here's What's Happening In The Market, Here’s What This Means For You

FSOC Says CRE Is Big Financial Risk
The 2023 annual report said banks hold about half of $6 trillion in commercial real estate loans with signs of stress having emerged.

Another Disaster Prediction Because of Treasury Yields
Jeffrey Gundlach, a billionaire bond trader, called the 10-year’s drop below 4% a ‘fire alarm.’

2023 Multifamily CMBS Delinquency Rates
The latest monthly update from Trepp on how this key measure is trending.

Multifamily Leaders Welcome Possible Rate Cuts
The Federal Reserve’s announcement last week has executives hopeful that transactions could pick up.

Why Maintaining Multifamily Occupancy Will be Tough Next Year
“We are no longer in a rising-tide lifts-all-boats market,” according to Yardi Matrix.

Could the Fed’s Pivot on Inflation Backfire?
Investors might get overly enthusiastic and push property prices up again, only without the likely ability to raise rents enough.

What the Soft Landing Could Look Like for CRE Next Year
However, the pace of growth for commercial real estate will be slower in 2024 than it was in 2023.

Freddie Mac Outlook for 2024: Moderate Growth
Highlights of the forecast include an uptick in average rent and as much as $380 million in deal volume.

Economists: 44% Of U.S. Office Loans Underwater, Threatening More Bank Failures
Turmoil in the office market is putting a growing number of banks in peril, as loan defaults threaten billions of dollars in losses.

Here Are The Challenges Facing The Multifamily Market Heading Into 2024
After two years of stellar growth, rents decelerated in 2023, despite demand still at strong levels thanks to a resilient economy. 

Data Show Industrial, Multifamily Still in Correction
But retail had a solid November.

Bet Against Blackstone Mortgage Reflects Multifamily Troubles
Borrowers can’t cover debt service, and rate cuts are no saving grace

CRE Poses Top Threat To U.S. Financial System Next Year, Regulators Say
CRE is the largest loan type among nearly half of U.S. banks, and more than a quarter of banks carry CRE loan totals that are “large relative to the capital they hold.

CMBS Apartment Loans Going To Servicing Rise 12 Basis Points
However, Trepp said delinquencies fell during the month, and CRED iQ reported an overall decline in apartment distress.

Delinquent CRE Loans Are on the Rise: The Kiplinger Letter
Banks are expanding their efforts to restructure CRE loans to avoid losses from the commercial real estate sector.

Rising Consumer Confidence Boosts Apartment Demand
When consumers feel good about the economy, apartment demand makes notable strides.

14% of CRE Bank Loans Are in Negative Equity: Study
The property values are less than the loan balances and one-third may encounter cash flow problems and refinancing challenges.

California Home Sales Down To Great Recession Level
Low inventory and high mortgage rates have led single-family home transactions to their most significant monthly decline in the past year and dropped to their lowest level since the Great Recession.

California Home Sales Plummet To 16-Year Low
California’s existing home sales in November recorded their greatest monthly decline in the past year and plummeted to the lowest level since the Great Recession, according to new data from the California Association of Realtors (CAR).

Fitch: CRE Credit Trends Expected to Continue Deteriorating
Credit trends in commercial real estate loans are expected to continue to deteriorate through 2025 for CMBS, U.S. banks and life insurers, but losses should remain within ratings sensitivities.

Fannie Mae Forecasts Home Sales And Mortgage Origination Recovery In 2024
Single-family home sales likely bottomed out during the fourth quarter this year and are expected to begin a slow but meaningful recovery in 2024, according to the latest commentary from the Fannie Mae.

Philly Fed Chief On Rate Cuts: ‘We Don’t Have To Do It Too Fast’
It’s important that we start to move rates down. We don’t have to do it too fast, and we’re not going to do it right away. We should hold rates where they are and start to bring rates down.”

CRE Prices Continue Dropping, but Rate of Decline Slows
Property prices have slipped over the past year along with sales volume, which in November dropped 60% year-over-year, as reported in the latest edition of US Capital Trends. 

Southern California Home Prices Shoot Up 7% In November
Four counties record record-high prices even as mortgage rates keep sellers on sidelines

Orange County

6
Closed Sales Last Week
46
Closed Sales - Average Days on Market
$1,498,333
Closed Sales - Average Sales Price
2
Transactions Sold At or Above Asking Price
2
Financed Transactions Last Week
4
All Cash Transactions Last Week
6
2-4 Unit Transactions Last Week
0
5+ Unit Transactions Last Week
3
New Listings Last Week
6
Months of Inventory
158
Total Number of Active Listings
$659,625,031
Active Listings, Dollar Volume
6
Active Under Contract Last Week
2
Pending Listings Last Week
2
Expired Listings Last Week

Orange County Closed Sales - MikeLembeck.com


Avg. Cap Rate: 4.47%
Avg. Gross Rent Multiplier: 14.63

Live MLS Link PDF Link


Southern California

4
Closed Sales Last Week
19
Closed Sales - Average Days on Market
$1,011,502
Closed Sales - Average Sales Price
2
Transactions Sold At or Above Asking Price
3
Financed Transactions Last Week
1
All Cash Transactions Last Week
4
2-4 Unit Transactions Last Week
0
5+ Unit Transactions Last Week
13
New Listings Last Week
10
Months of Inventory
120
Total Number of Active Listings
$380,151,484
Active Listings, Dollar Volume
0
Active Under Contract Last Week
2
Pending Listings Last Week
2
Expired Listings Last Week

Orange County Closed Sales - MikeLembeck.com


Avg. Cap Rate: 4.63%
Avg. Gross Rent Multiplier: 14.24

Live MLS Link PDF Link